Bird Flu – What Are The Odds of Mutation

I thought with the recent post about weaponized bird flu I would repost this article I wrote in 2005 with the note that when I wrote it, I was just speculating about the potential for the conscious creation of a pandemic strain of bird flu.  Now it is looking like evidence is building for just such a creation having already taken place.

Are we tired of hearing about the bird flu yet? The constant fear mongering never ceases. Words like epidemic & pandemic thrown around by those who the average Joe thinks know something he does not. Let’s face the facts here, bird flu is a disease of ummm… birds, that has infected a small amount of people. Yep that’s right a small amount, about 200 known cases of which approximately 60 people died out of 6 ½ billion people on planet earth. This is hardly worth noticing based on the numbers alone. For the most part these people either worked in or lived near a facility that raises poultry. A few may have been exposed to groups of wild birds infected, but most reports state that all contracted the disease from birds, with one or two rouge reports claiming one or two human to human transmissions with no evidence to back up their statements. Remember SARS the last big pandemic fear? Nothing came of SARS and it is just as likely nothing with come of this strain of the avian flu.

We have a whole lot of hype and no information whatsoever. The big pandemic we are supposed to prepare ourselves for is the one that is created when the bird flu mutates and is then capable of human to human transmission. This mutation is presented as immanent and absolute. I want to know what this assumption is based on. Where is there even one shred of information that shows this bird flu will ever mutate to be transmittable from human to human. There is none! All the great scientists of the world who specialize in this field are guessing that this one will mutate, yes you heard me, guessing. What are the odds of mutation and what is the scientific basis for the odds. There are no odds, zip, none, nadda. If it does mutate, do we know it will be as virulent as the current strain, or will it just be another flu? Well according to science and history a virus that is especially virulent is not good at spreading, and when it mutates and becomes better at spreading it becomes less virulent.

There are sites out there that want to scare us even more than the average media, one states that this virus has a 50% kill rate in humans and that we should expect that kill rate as a pandemic. This is fear mongering of the worst kind. First of all it only appears to have a 50% kill rate based on the amount of people who have been tested to have bird flu and how many of them have died. Second there could have been many others who contracted this strain and had minimal symptoms and recovered without ever being tested for bird flu drastically changing the numbers. Third the strain they have was contracted from birds it is not the human to human variety that it would have to mutate into in order to become a pandemic, that strain is an unknown.

One of the worst pandemics of historical record was the black death of the 14th century and it had an estimated 20% kill rate. The Spanish flu of 1918-1919 is now believed to be a mutated version of avian flu and it affected 20 – 25% of the world population with a kill rate of 2.5 to 5% of those infected. Of those who died many died of secondary bacterial pneumonia that was untreated as there were no antibiotics at the time, so the same strain hitting now would presumably have a much lower kill rate. The reality is that if the world experiences any kind of pandemic with a 50% kill rate we can be certain it was human created for the very purpose of culling the human population.

There is a lot of talk of the vaccine they are making and how long it will take. This too is nothing but propaganda as all flu vaccines are. A vaccine cannot be created for a mutated virus that does not exist yet. There may be scientists trying to make a vaccine based on the current strain hoping that it will speed up the making of a vaccine for a mutated strain that appears later. No matter what vaccine they may present us with, I wouldn’t touch it with a ten foot pole. The current flu vaccine is a joke and the fact that they want us all to have it so bad only makes it more suspect. Do you know that you may be taking a vaccine for a different strain of flu then the one in current circulation? Vaccine manufacturers never know what strain is going to pop up the next season as they are manufacturing your vaccine so they guess. Oh sure they use computer programs to help them guess but it’s a guess none the less. When they guess wrong they send out the vaccines anyway and all the dutiful docs are more than happy to sell them to you even though they know they are worthless, having been made for the wrong strain. Every one still needs to make their profits even when they guess wrong.

The truth is there is no evidence any flu vaccines work. Anecdotal evidence of my mother a nurse for the past 50 years, 73 years old and still nursing, is that her colleagues and patients who take the vaccines all get sick! She won’t take it, even when the hospital attempts to force her to, and amazingly she hasn’t had the flu since the last time she gave in, a few years back, and took the vaccine. That year she got the flu within a few days of receiving the vaccine. Flu vaccine is just big money plain and simple and when they create shortages, real or imagined, they make even better money as people clamor for more in fear. Now we have tamiflu this is supposed to be a significant medicine for the flu. Governments are stockpiling it for the bird flu pandemic that they tell us is imminent. There is no evidence that tamiflu will do anything for the bird flu if it mutates. It appears to do little to nothing for the regular flu. Information shows the regular flu will be on average one day shorter in duration with tamiflu, but no less intense.

I think the powers that be are just praying for a pandemic. With a true pandemic just think of all the lovely police state actions that could be taken world wide by governments champing at the bit to take away freedoms. Taking away our rights with the perfect excuse, claiming it is to protect our lives. Could there be a more perfect cover for crimes against humanity? This may seem far fetched to many, but with no real science behind the claims of mutation, and this strain becoming the next big pandemic, this would lead one to wonder (at the very least me) does a mutated version already exist, having been mutated by humans? Is the confidence in this being the coming pandemic simply because it is the release of a biological created from the bird flu for the purpose of culling the world population? Who would benefit from the pandemic? The list is a long one but most certainly it doesn’t include anyone who is the average Joe of any of the world’s nations. Is this a conspiracy theory of mass proportions? Sure, but that doesn’t take it out of the realm of possibility.

If history repeats we are due for a pandemic and it could have come 5 or 10 years ago based on the averages, it could be 5 or 10 years in the future. It’s no different than waiting for the big earthquake, it could come at any moment. We should all have some basic preparedness, but go on with our lives without allowing our media and government to control us with their fear mongering. The flu in fact serves an important purpose in the human body, those who purify their bodies and mind rarely get the flu. Those in need of purification get the flu, the fever kills off all kinds of things that harm the body, often when inflicted we give our digestive system a rest and take in only fluids for a few days detoxifying ourselves. There are always some who are in a weakened state and the flu ends their lives, but as the old saying goes “what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger.” I don’t th
ink we should be attempting to vaccinate against a mostly innocuous, although unpleasant illness that serves a purpose in human existence. Don’t want to experience it, try regular mediation, fasting, remove the poisonous foods and supposed medicines of our toxic society from your diet. Turn off the TV when the fear mongering escalates and refuse to live your life in the constant state of stress that is being pressed upon us by media and government.

The odds of this bird flu mutating into a pandemic are completely unknown. The odds of a new virus showing up tomorrow with no warning and sweeping the world as the pandemic that is due, equally unknown. So if you want to worry about, it then you may as well take a vacation to a beach resort and spend the whole vacation anticipating being hit by a tsunami, or go to LA with the purpose of waiting for the big one. When the big ones hit, whether they be tsunamis, earthquakes, volcanoes, hurricanes, pandemics or inside job terrorist attacks like 911, no amount of worry changes anything, all it does it tear at the fabric of our lives while things are good. We should all have some food, water, medical supplies etc, so when something hits we are prepared to take care of ourselves, but once you have a few supplies in the house and car, LET GO! A life of fear is not a life worth saving, choose joy.

Engtovo Bhodsvatan
November 30, 2005


One thought on “Bird Flu – What Are The Odds of Mutation


    Spread of avian flu by drinking water:

    Proved awareness to ecology and transmission is necessary to understand the spread of avian flu. For this it is insufficient exclusive to test samples from wild birds, poultry and humans for avian flu viruses. Samples from the known abiotic vehicles as water also have to be analysed. Proving viruses in water is difficult because of dilution. If you find no viruses you can not be sure that there are not any. On the other hand in water viruses remain viable for a long time. Water has to be tested for influenza viruses by cell culture and in particular by the more sensitive molecular biology method PCR.

    Transmission of avian flu by direct contact to infected poultry is an unproved assumption from the WHO. There is no evidence that influenza primarily is transmitted by saliva droplets: “Transmission of influenza A in human beings”

    There are clear links between the cold, rainy seasons as well as floods and the spread of influenza. There are clear links between avian flu and water, e.g. in Egypt to the Nile delta or in Indonesia to residential districts of less prosperous humans with backyard flocks of birds and without a central water supply as in Vietnam: See also the WHO web side: That is just why abiotic vehicles as water have to be analysed. The direct biotic transmission from birds, poultry or humans to humans can not depend on the cold, rainy seasons or floods. Water is a very efficient abiotic vehicle for the spread of viruses – in particular of fecal as well as by mouth, nose and eyes excreted viruses. Infected humans, mammals, birds and poultry can contaminate drinking water everywhere. All humans have very intensive contact to drinking water. Spread of avian flu by drinking water can explain small clusters in households too.

    Avian flu infections may increase in consequence to increase of virus circulation. Human to human and contact transmission of influenza occur – but are overvalued immense. In the course of influenza epidemics in Germany, recognized clusters are rare, accounting for just 9 percent of cases e.g. in the 2005 season. In temperate climates the lethal H5N1 virus will be transferred to humans via cold drinking water, as with the birds in February and March 2006, strong seasonal at the time when (drinking) water has its temperature minimum.

    The performance to eliminate viruses from the drinking water processing plants regularly does not meet the requirements of the WHO and the USA/USEPA. Conventional disinfection procedures are poor, because microorganisms in the water are not in suspension, but embedded in particles. Even ground water used for drinking water is not free from viruses.

    In temperate regions influenza epidemics recur with marked seasonality around the end of winter, in the northern as well as in the southern hemisphere. Although seasonality is one of the most familiar features of influenza, it is also one of the least understood. Indoor crowding during cold weather, seasonal fluctuations in host immune responses, and environmental factors, including relative humidity, temperature, and UV radiation have all been suggested to account for this phenomenon, but none of these hypotheses has been tested directly. Influenza causes significant morbidity in tropical regions; however, in contrast to the situation in temperate zones, influenza in the tropics is not strongly associated with a certain season.

    In the tropics, flood-related influenza is typical after extreme weather. The virulence of influenza viruses depends on temperature and time. Especially in cases of local water supplies with “young” and fresh influenza-contaminated water from low local wells, cisterns, tanks, rain barrels, ponds, rivers or rice paddies, this pathway can explain H5N1 infections. At 24°C, for example, in the tropics the virulence of influenza viruses in water exists for 2 days. In temperate climates with “older” water from central water supplies, the temperature of the water is decisive for the virulence of viruses. At 7°C the virulence of influenza viruses in water extends to 14 days.

    Ducks and rice (paddies = flooded by water) are major factors in outbreaks of avian flu, claims a UN agency: Ducks and rice fields may be a critical factor in spreading H5N1. Ducks, rice (fields, paddies = flooded by water; farmers at work drink the water from rice paddies) and people – not chickens – have emerged as the most significant factors in the spread of avian influenza in Thailand and Vietnam, according to a study carried out by a group of experts from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and associated research centres. See

    The study “Mapping H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza risk in Southeast Asia: ducks, rice and people” also concludes that these factors are probably behind persistent outbreaks in other countries such as Cambodia and Laos. This study examined a series of waves of H5N1, a highly pathogenic avian influenza, in Thailand and Vietnam between early 2004 and late 2005. Through the use of satellite mapping, researchers looked at several different factors, including the numbers of ducks, geese and chickens, human population size, rice cultivation and geography, and found a strong link between duck grazing patterns and rice cropping intensity.

    In Thailand, for example, the proportion of young ducks in flocks was found to peak in September-October; these rapidly growing young ducks can therefore benefit from the peak of the rice harvest in November-December, at the beginning of the cold: Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos – as opposed to Indonesia – are located in the northern hemisphere.

    These peaks in the congregation of ducks indicate periods in which there is an increase in the chances for virus release and exposure, and rice paddies often become a temporary habitat for wild bird species. In addition, with virus persistence becoming increasingly confined to areas with intensive rice-duck agriculture in eastern and south-eastern Asia, the evolution of the H5N1 virus may become easier to predict.

    Dipl.-Ing. Wilfried Soddemann – Epidemiologist – Free Science Journalist

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s